Thoughts on big trends in technology, media, politics, and society. Oh, and kind of a diary except more public.

Wednesday, February 1, 2012

My Top 10 Predictions for Tech & Media in 2012

These have appeared originally as a series of tweets. Without the 140-character limit per, a few have been expanded here:

#10 The best smartphones selling now aren't even 30% of the functionality we'll see in Q4 2012.

#9 Traditional forms of data management, business intelligence and knowledge management will be combined with highly curated published media to advance business analysis and corporate training.

#8 Explosion in non-traditional spectrum will broaden streaming's use: both "wi-fi roaming" & "white space."

# 7 One or two firms, among today's ERP players or NextGen point-solution enterprise players, will offer a real, comprehensive ERP 2.0: fully mobile, fully cloud, with rich web interfaces.

#6 Digital periodicals will change to deliberately blend traditional journalistic approaches with editor-curated social media interaction. Think “FlipBoard in reverse”.

#5 Siri-like & Kinect-like interfaces will spread across multiple devices; APIs will be opened up for them, too, unleashing considerable innovation.

#4 Privacy and Identity issues will be so big there'll be significant regulatory/legislative backlash as well as the introduction of specific apps for users to take back control of their personal information. One of the drivers of NFC adoption will be consumers recognizing their mobile device, tied securely to the cloud, can produce a truly protected wallet consisting of not only credit cards, but also transit pass, driver's license, passport, and all important identity info.

#3 New video-specific guides, interfaces and search tools will straddle cable, NetFlix, & YouTube for Internet TVs, tablets & consoles. Apple WILL offer a leapfrog in this before year-end.

#2 A new class of mobile apps will integrate & organize other apps to unleash higher utility & value and reduce the current clutter.

#1 The US presidential election outcome will be defined by social media innovations honed in Arab Spring and Occupy Wall Street. Entering 2013, the entire consumer Internet will feel much more “Cause-Centric”.